Next Labour Leader- Lay The Challengers

The Conservative leadership is now settled, without an actual contest, and now the circus shifts to Labour. Carl Harris says lay the challengers Corbyn wins again.

political betting from Carl Harris X22 bet

Jeremy Corbyn has such strong support amongst Labour

So the circus shifts to the Labour party. Some might say enter the clowns! It has to be said the goings on in the Labour Party have been noting short of madness. Let’s recap the story so far….

Following a leadership race 10 months ago, or so, Jeremy Corbyn, a no hoper and 200-1 outsider won with the dominance of Frankel in the 2000 guineas. Since then the Labour membership has surged and the rise of the left has grown in momentum.

Following the EU referendum the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) staged a coup. This followed the sacking of Hillary Benn by Mr Corbyn. 80+ shadow cabinet members resigned. Labour were in open mutiny. Corbyn insisted he would not stand down saying he had a mandate from the membership of the party. Corbyn also crucially has the full support of the trade unions and key figures such as Len McLuskey.

Earlier this week Angela Eagle got the required 51 names to trigger a leadership contest and launched her leadership bid. Ironically it was completely overshadowed by Andrea Leadsom pulling out of the Conservative contest which resulted in Theresa May becoming PM.

The Labour Party were then split. The key issue was would Corbyn as Labour leader be automatically be added to the ballot. There are rules but it seems both parties interpreted them in different ways.

Sky News reported..
lawyersnew

I commented on my Twitter account that both sides paid for legal opinion and both sides got exactly the advice they were looking for. Funny that! I think that reflects more on lawyers than anything else. However Corbyn in on the ballot. There are some key rule changes though.

Rules and Timetable
The Labour National Executive (NEC) imposed a freeze date of 12 Jan 2016 for members to vote. Effectively only members of 6 months plus duration can vote. Also the cost of being a voting member is now £25, so the £3 members who joined for Corbyn will have to pay £25 to vote. Here is the official rules from the Labour NEC…

freeze date

This means that those who came in for £3 just 12 months ago will now have to pay £25 to vote. I commented on twitter that it is almost like Dell Boy was on the committee and has spotted an earner. Indeed those who paid £3 may have a case to feel aggrieved given that this messaged accompanied their £3 payment made on the Labour website when they joined;

3quid

So we may yet see a legal challenge, clearly there is a case given the laws about advertising. However as things stand it will cost the £3 members who are effectively Corbyn members £25 to vote. I have no doubt they will pay and Labour will make a big amount of money. Some (like me) might say that’s Socialism for you! So what now?

Nominations will close 15th August and on 21st September the result announced at the Labour Conference in Liverpool. What happens after that is anyone’s guess but we are talking betting here in the Next Labour Leader market.

Corby Will Win Again
You can not get odds on Corby winning. The market is for the NEXT Labour Leader. Here are the best odds from Oddschecker. I think the approach to make money is to LAY the field, I think Corbyn is a good thing to win. Here is why I say that.

Firstly he has a huge membership behind him. The passion he has engendered will work in his favour. The members supporting Corbyn are much more likely to pay £25 to support him, much more so than those who would be against him. The £3 members will pay. I have no doubt he will win.

Despite the one member one vote system the process now boasts the trade unions are vital and Corbyn has their unanimous support. They usually get their way.

This morning Owen Smith (who? look him up) has announced he will also run, along with Angela Eagle. The fact that there is now a split anti-Corbyn vote almost, in my view guarantees that Corbyn will win again. They didn’t have much of a chance with Eagle v Corbyn but Owen Smith clearly putting his own ambitions ahead of those of the PLP has clipped the Eagle’s wings and split the Anti-Corbyn Vote. There is no way either of them can win against the momentum (literally the Momentum movement) of Corbyn.

So the way to play this is to LAY LAY LAY, anyone against Corbyn lay them, the market is settled based on the announcement of the Labour Leader at the party conference in September.

Corbyn will not quit, he has shown so much resolve, we are onto a winner with Jeremy!

Theresa May Wins a Walk Over

andrea leadsom

Breaking News is that Andrea Leadsom is pulling out of the Leadership race. if so May may be crowned without a contest, or will there be a rerun? Who knows. Could Boris be back!

What a mess! Watch the NEWS!

Andrea Leadsom- Why the Market is WRONG!

Carl Harris thinks Andrea Leadsom is a great bet to be the next Tory Leader at 10/3…

andrea leadsom

Will Andrea Leadsom be the next UK Prime Minister?

I am going to declare that I truly hope Andrea Leadsom wins the vote of the membership of the Conservative party and becomes leader and Prime Minister. However, this is a betting blog and when it comes to betting, there is no room for sentiment. I bet, as should everyone, based on logic and not emotion. I think that she will win and the betting market is badly wrong. This is my objective look why I am recommending Andrea Leadsom as a MAX BET for the next Conservative leader and UK Prime Minister. 

Lets look at the current market odds, oddschecker show the best prices, with Theresa May as short as 1/5 and Andrea Leadsom BEST PRICE 10/3, generally available. BEST ODDS HERE

REMEMBER BREXIT?
The market would suggest that Theresa May is home and hosed. Remember BREXIT? The bookies got it BADLY WRONG, and the market had a similar look to it. The opinion polls never showed that the UK would vote leave but they did. That was a whole of the UK vote, this is far more focused and in my view easier to predict.

ONLY 150K VOTERS, MAX!
The process now is that the membership of the Conservative party will pick a new leader, from Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom. Membership numbers are a closely guarded secret but it is somewhere between 125 and 150 thousand, best guess. It is the Conservative Party membership who will determine the next Prime Minister of the UK. You may argue that is wrong, but in terms of a bet on who it will be is irrelevant!

By the way; don’t worry about a Labour style surge in membership to affect the result, the rules for the Conservative Party are you have to have been a member for at least three months to vote in leadership elections.

FAVOURITES NEVER WIN THIS…
Favourites simply DO NOT win Tory leadership elections. David Davis was the runaway fav last time, much like May here, but David Cameron won. There is a long list of beaten favourites. The odds in my view are skewed because the parliamentary party overwhelmingly backed Theresa May. However we know that Westminster is detached from the rest of the country and certainly in the Conservative membership, they will vote differently to the Conservative MP’s.

BREXIT v REMAIN AGAIN…
Whilst the MP’s and senior Conservatives are saying the term leaver and remainer are now defunct, we are all leavers now, nothing could be further from the truth. This will boil down to two things in my view. Firstly May was a remainer, but really didn’t get involved in the most important decision of our lifetime, many will think, and Leadsom was a prominent leave campaigner. Indeed the leave campaign made her, many had never heard of her before the referendum.

In My View Andrea Leadsom Is The Conservative’s Conservative! 

Two thirds of the Conservative Party membership voted to LEAVE the EU, this is an issue that has divided the party and the strength of feeling over this issue could be decisive. Leadsom as a leaver is in pole position. However the typical Conservative member is also conservative with a small C and they like what Mrs Leadsom stands for, May is very liberal, very politically correct. Andrea Leadsom may have got negative coverage in the media with her views on such issues as Fox Hunting, Gay Marriage and Political Correctness (positive discrimination) but let me tell you know she is preaching to the choir and she will hit the right note.

Many members will see her as the new Margaret Thatcher, whist this may cause huge debate in wider society, not in the Conservative Party. Mrs Thatcher is held in the highest regard, almost God like status. Mrs Thatcher would win a leadership contest today in the party with almost 100% of the vote, it wouldn’t actually be a contest because no one would stand against her.  The second factor that will be decisive for Andrea Leadsom is one BORIS JOHNSON!

BRING ON THE BORIS!
Andrea Leadsom then, you may argue, is behind Theresa May at this stage, however she has the support of Boris Johnson and if he were standing, he would win with a landslide, there is no question of that. Boris’ political ambitions have not gone away and he has given Leadsom his support. That is significant and more so could be decisive.

If, which he is sure to do, he campaigns actively on her behalf, his golden touch of election victories will have an effect here. He will be rewarded with a top job and be in prime position then to take over from Andrea Leadsom at some stage. Boris Johnson could and in my view probably will win this, for Andrea Leadson. He is an election winner as he showed with the Brexit vote, he can do the same for Andrea Leadsom.

Andrea Leadsom is a very smart cookie. She will milk the Boris factor for all it is worth, this for me will win it. The market is completely wrong. We are talking about a small electorate, a specific type of person, one who has a long track record of defying the odds.

I have NO DOUBT, none at all that the market is wrong, this is far closer than the odds suggest, but I think Leadsom should be the favourite and we should PILE IN at 10-3. I have!

We will know the winner on the 9th September 2016.

Theresa May A Shoe In After Gove Stunt

In the fast changing world of politics, Carl Harris has a betting update…
GOVE bstard

Well you can not make this stuff up! The New Statesman in the late 80’s or early 90’s looked a far fetched satirical comedy, but no, it appears it was all real!

Mr Gove, probably actually Mrs Gove, decided it was a good opportunity to further his own ambitions and knife Boris Johnson in the back! he claims he is the reluctant candidate but let’s be honest if it was not Boris, then he only had to look to Andrea Leadsom and back her. He has got used to feeding us bull s**t that it just rolls off the tongue.

The popularity of Boris in the party and his act of what will be seen as treachery will not be forgiven and the chances of Gove beating May for the leadership is slim. I would lay him and indeed am doing on betfair. I think it will be a formality, despite the history of Tory leadership races, for Theresa May.

I believe Gove will drop out, he has under estimated the strength of feeling about the B’stard style coupe he pulled. Leadsom has some big bank rollers supporting her but I believe she will do a deal with May for the job of Chancellor or another top cabinet post. Gove will not feature in a May government no prominently anyway. I think May will no doubt be next PM and leader.

She is very small odds, but it looks nailed on. Oh hang on this is politics, nothing is nailed on anymore!

Politics Betting- Brexit & What Went Wrong?

Carl Harris with his thoughts on the EU referendum results, the betting and other views on the Post Brexit Betting Markets…

Political Betting from X22

Will Boris Johnson Be the First Post Brexit Prime Minister?

The bookies got things spectacularly wrong in the EU Referendum. Just like the 2015 General Election the polls and the bookies were wrong! The bookies, all of them, every firm, made Remain the long odds-on favourites for the EU Referendum. They claimed their odds were better indicators than polls that were veering all over the place. Remain was always 1-3 or thereabouts. Never was there a doubt remain would win. No Brexit!

Ladbrokes said after that they were not there to make predictions, but to make money and they claimed they did nicely out of it. Nigel Farage of course had £1000 on with Ladbrokes and he did OK thank you. But the bookmakers have spent years claiming they are the ones to listen to, but now they claim they are not, they should be politicians!

The head of political betting for Ladbrokes spoke to the Independent after the vote.  “I see no evidence that the betting was deliberately “manipulated” by big money,” he insisted.

But as he had earlier explained to The Independent, one problem with betting was the vast amount of wishful thinking that went on. And in this contest, he said: “I think there’s something to be considered in the fact that the most affluent sections of society were generally behind Remain.

“Maybe there just aren’t enough dispassionate investors out there to correct that possible bias, even in a multi-million pound market like the EU Referendum.”

I think they should just say we got it wrong and the polls got it wrong. I personally think that everything was done to get a remain vote but the strength of feeling is so great they all got it WRONG. I believe it was down to one thing, LONDON!

United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_voting_regions_results.svg

The map above is simplistic BUT it shows you by region who voted to remain – Yellow and who voted to leave- Blue. There were pockets of difference within each region, for example York voted remain but as a whole the region was for Brexit, but this is used to illustrate the point i want to make. London voted to remain and was not representative of the rest of England and Wales.

The London Bubble..

Across all 33 boroughs in the capital, 59.9% (2.26 million) voted in favour of remaining in the EU. In some areas, the remain vote was more than 70%. London is now completely different to the rest of the UK, both culturally and economically. Of course the politicians, the pollsters the media and the bookmakers (in the main) are based in, yes you got it, London. So people are living in a bubble that is not representative of the rest of the country. Therefore those forming and reporting opinion, making odds and reflecting the “mood” are doing so of their London bubble. As the results show they got it wrong!

It was a remarkable result, you can blame the campaigns, the lies, etc. Personally the one thing that struck me most was that politicians (on all sides) clearly think the voting public are a set of idiots. Some of the claims made during the campaign were ridiculous! There was no question though, remain had it!

Even Nigel Farage himself conceded defeat as the polls closed! There was such a strong view that remain had won. The bookies had a poll showing 57% remain. Guess what, 57% of London voted remain!

Whatever you think of Nigel Farage he has been quite entertaining and the very fact that the UK held a Brexit vote is in many ways down to him. They will one day make a movie about Farage I am sure. The speech he gave in the EU Parliament was actually very funny…(Watch on Youtube)

18-34 Spoiled it for Themselves…

Farage is a marmite figure and the young remain voters blame him and of course Boris Johnson for the Brexit. There is also a view that has been peddled about, on social media, by the young generation that it was the older people who screwed up the outcome they wanted, remain. The reality is shown in these figures:

sky poll

All the data that is coming out shows a really low turn out amongst the 18-24 age group. The UK turnout was 70%+ but only around 40% of that age group bothered voting. I saw some data that said, if turn out was the same amongst the young as it was nationally remain would have won, and won comfortably. So being blunt, they messed it up for themselves all by themselves!

It was The North That Won It!

Looking at the voting data by region, it was the North that won it! The North of England who voted leave changed the political future of Britain and perhaps popped the London bubble! No question of that, but the Brexit result has raised many questions.

Here are just a few Questions Resulting from The Brexit Vote:

  1. Who will succeed David Cameron as Tory leader and therefore Prime Minister
  2. Will there be a general election in 2016 and who will win it?
  3. Will there be a second EU referendum?
  4. WIll there be a second Scottish referendum and what will the result be?
  5. Will Corbyn Resign and if so who will succeed him?
  6. If Corbyn doesn’t resign can he win a general election?

Political betting suddenly got interesting! Indeed oddschecker have added it as a header to their site, it used to be tucked away under TV and Specials, not any more!

Political Betting Opportunities as a Result of Brexit…

The first and immediate question is who will succeed David Cameron and Conservative Party Leader, and therefore Prime Minister? It looks to be a two horse race, Boris Johnson and Theresa May.

WARNING- the Fav rarely wins the Tory leadership contest, historically! 

The bookies are split between Boris Johnson and Theresa May, but Boris is the majority favourite and having lead the Brexit campaign to victory there is no question he has popular appeal, This will not have gone unnoticed by the Tory membership, 150,000 of whom will be selecting the new UK PM. I personally have no doubt one of these two will win, forget the rest, but which one?

For me I think BORIS JOHNSON is a MAX BET to be the next Tory leader and PM and at 5/4 he is good value. Reports are on Wednesday he has 100 Tory MP’s behind him and if so he will go on and face Mrs May in a ballot of the members and I expect him to win comfortably. The latest odds are HERE

There can be no second referendum, it would question democracy and would be  political disaster and too great a risk for any PM to call, look what happened to Cameron. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas afterall!

Carl Harris POST BREXIT Political Betting Predictions:

  1. Boris Johnson will win the Conservative leadership contest and be the next PM
  2. there will be an autumn general election in 2016- Odds here
  3. The Conservatives, under Bo Jo will win it. ODDS HERE
  4. Andrea Leadsom will be the next Chancellor. She has a finance background. My view is Michael Gove will be Foreign Secretary. Odds on next Chancellor Here.
  5. There will be no second EU Referendum, and a deal will be negotiated with the UK outside the EU but full access to the free market.
  6. Corbyn will not be Labour leader, Angela Eagle would be my prediction, it is her or Tom Watson. They will badly lose the General Election. Odds on Labour leader HERE
  7. UKIP will win 3 seats and Nigel Farage will be elected in Thanet.
  8. There will be NO second Scottish Referendum. Odds HERE

Watch this space, political betting has never been so exciting!

EU Referendum- Bookies Say Stay!

Stay or Go? That is the question we will be asked in June, to stay in (a reformed) European Union or Leave, the so called #Brexit. The referendum will be held on Thursday 23 June 2016. The question will be as follows;

forms

It is none of my business who you vote for, personally I think the whole thing is pointless. If there is a NO vote it will likely be ignored or circumvented in some way. All three major parties are in favour of membership, albeit there is opposition in the Conservative Party, but the powers that be are in favour. So on that basis to my mind the UK is not leaving anytime soon.

The market is screaming that the vote will go the way of remain. Best price to remain is 4/9. When it comes to change people are resistant to it and the majority of undecided are likely to stick with what they have.

Everyday we hear stories about the impending disasters of leaving the EU, trade, mortgages, travel, just about everything. I have no actual view on this but I doubt it would be the end of the world to leave the EU.

Looking at the market, it is a non-event! The UK will NOT be leaving the EU it says!

Get The Odds Here (Oddschecker)

MIlliband Will Have To Make Some U-Turn to be PM

The other day I questioned why Ed Millband was so much shorter than David Cameron in the markets to become the next PM given he had ruled out ANY form of deal with the SNP. Well now a statement he made 5 years ago on election night may have sealed his fate….

I saw this on Twitter, posted by Guido Fawkes, probably the number 1 political blog in the UK. It is a right wing blog, which makes Ed Millband is as popular as Sir Alex Ferguson would be on a Liverpool Football Blog, I am sure there are better football metaphors but I know less about football than I do about rocket science.

There is no dressing up what Ed Milliband said though. He said that in the event of no overall majority, the constitution dictates that the incumbent PM gets “first crack” at forming a government. So there you go, no debate, Ed made it clear five years ago!

As I understand it there is no written constitution in the UK, and certainly there is nothing documented covering this particular scenario, so Mr Milliband, speaking as a Labour minion back in 2010 in a bid to keep Gordon Brown in power, may have inadvertently shot himself in the (other) foot, after ruling out any form of  deal with the SNP. He has gone down a country lane with a dead end in front and a heard of cattle behind. He has well and truly nowhere to go, if of course the pools and forecasts are correct.

Surely Cameron is now a MAX BET to bet the PM after the Election?

The odds have narrowed. William Hill are currently 10/11 joint favourites. Indeed at the best prices on odds checker, Milliband is best 10/11 and David Cameron Evens. The momentum with only a few days to go is with the boys in blue it seems. But I do not understand why Milliband is the market leader. Well I do, the market is saying they do not believe his rhetoric!

So let’s Recap what the Betting Markets are Saying….

The Conservatives are long odds on to have the most seats (best 2/9) but a hung parliament (no overall majority) is as short as 1/8. It appears almost a certainty. The Conservatives still think they will get a majority, but there is not one poll that gives this any chance at all. This looks a dead cert!

I still think we will end up with a CON / LIB DEM government, but it may be a minority government. Certainly Ed Milliband will have to allow the PM to have first crack at forming a government (assuming the conservatives get the most seats), he has stated that is the right of the sitting PM, constitutionally. He has also said no deal of any kind with the SNP, even if it means missing out on becoming PM. These are quotes he has said on camera, no grey areas, he said them, and he could not become PM by going back on that surely?

It would be some U-turn, but this is politics and would it surprise you? Would it at all? I wouldn’t be at all surprised, but I think even Alistair Campbell would struggle to spin it if he did! If he does go back on his categorical statements, he would have no credibility as PM and would have a short lived career in politics afterwards.

There is a fixed term parliament act in place, but that can be repealed by Parliament, so I would not be too concerned about that. I think a good long term bet is for another General Election in 2015. Bet365 go 5/2 on a second General Election in 2015. 

Thankfully only a few days remain. It is getting a bit tedious now, or is it just me? Mind you it might be a right mess by Friday it might all start all over again!

 

No Deal With The SNP Even If I am Not PM

Ed Milliband has said he will NOT be PM with ANY form of deal with The SNP, the markets think otherwise….He said on BBC last night, 1 week before polling day….(CLICK HERE TO VIEW)

So let us be clear here, this is what Mr Milliband said…

“If the Price of having a Labour Government is having a deal with the SNP- it is NOT going to happen!”

So a week today, the likely outcome of the General Election will be a HUNG PARLIAMENT and the only mathematical majority is LAB + SNP. The markets, prior to BBC Question Time on Thursday had Conservatives long odds on to have most seats, yet Ed Milliband favourite to be PM. Surely after this categorical statement, NO DEAL OF ANY TYPE WITH THE SNP, Mr Cameron would have regained favouritism to become the next PM. Errr….NO!

Ed Milliband remains the 8/11 Fav to be the next PM. But without the SNP he can not have a majority, the Con / Lib Dem alliance would have enough to form a minority government. So why is David Cameron not the Fav ?

Could it be that the market do not believe what Mr Milliband has said? Surely if he went back on this he would be PM, but he and the Labour party would be completely annihilated, next time round, which may not be in five years time? Surely He can not be so adamant and in a week’s time do the opposite.

My guess is the market is expecting him to do just that! I suspect the rhetoric will be along the lines of….

” Well I wanted a Labour Majority and I don’t want to do a deal with the SNP, but the UK has spoken and I must keep the cost cutting Tories out of Downing Street”

I do wish you could get odds on that! But we all live in hope, Ed Milliband could be a politician that says what he means, and means what he says! If he does, Simon who asked this question will become quite famous!

It is going to be interesting. For me, NO BET!

One Week To Voting Day #GE2015

On May 7th the UK goes to the poll for the General Election 2015. That means in 7 days from today we can all go out and vote.

It is a “cert” that no one will win. To me it is like a greyhound race….The Labour Party wear the red jacket in TRAP 1 and the Conservative Party the blue of TRAP 2. So we know that the red or blue will get furthest, but unless the polls are dramatically wrong neither will finish the race!

In the mythical 2015 election greyhound race both will get to about the third bend. 326 seats is what is needed for a majority and to govern the UK. Estimates are that the Conservatives will get the around the 280 mark and Labour 265. This is what Betfair Predicts puts the state of play at with a week to go…

Political Betting from X22

Political Betting from X22

So looking at some basic maths, the magic number is 326. So to be PM Cameron needs 47 more on these number. The Lib Dems will lose half their MP’s and the current coalition is still 19 short on these numbers. Even with UKIP and the DUP they can’t make it!

So the market has an odd look, Conservatives are long odds on for most seats but Milliband, The Labour Leader is odds on to be PM. But for all the talk of an SNP / Labour deal, which he has publicly ruled out categorically (yeah right) they still are only past the fourth bend, they do not get to the winning line!

It is a race no one is going to finish and if the polls are right we will have an election to decide nothing! If racing terms Trap 1 and Trap 2 will get to the third bend, then will try and talk the other four runners in to a stitch up! Whatever happens it looks a dead cert that the election will only make everything totally unclear! The result will be a complete mess. There is NO WAY at all any of the sides can govern with a majority.

Best guess…well I have a feeling that the undecided will have a HUGE SAY, as happened with John Major, in uncertain times they revert to the devil they know. I think that we may end up with a CON / Lib Dem minority.

I have no idea how Milliband having categorically said no deal with the SNP could then do one. But in politics nothing will surprise me! The ban on cigarette advertising in sport that Blair gave F1 an exclusion was staggering. Clearly nothing to do with the £1m Bernie Eccleston had previously donated to Labour ! I am not picking on Labour, they are all in the say one thing do another bracket! The Conservatives are even promising a law so they can’t break their promises not to raise taxes.

So as Iain Dale pointed out on Twitter,

iain

Are they saying then, ‘this is a real promise the rest are not really’ ?

From now on we should ask is that a legally binding promise or not a real promise! The parties are so desperate that every day it is a give away as to what they will do, I can’t believe people still believe what politicians say to be honest!

So we are all waiting for a race we are fairly sure no one will win. If things turn out as predicted we will end up with one big fat mess!

Oh and don’t forget that whatever happens we are stuck with it for the next five years thanks to the fixed term parliament act brought in as part of the 2010 coalition agreement!  If you think this election has gone on too long, wit until next week, you aint seen nothing yet!

General Election Betting

by Carl HarrisIN just under two weeks time, the UK will go to the polls to elect a new government. With the bookmakers offering a plethora of bets, Carl Harris has a look at any betting opportunities.

Firstly, this is non party political, whoever you support or vote for is up to you, this is purely about the betting.

The markets are odd, in so much that the Conservatives are 2/5 to get the most seats, but Ed Milliband is equally long odds on to be the next PM after the election! This is on the face of it contradictory, but the biggest cert it seems is that we are heading for a hung Parliament with no party having an overall majority. (yes insightful or what!)

The market is saying that the Conservatives will have the most seats but Labour will govern in a coalition, seemingly with the SNP. Indeed a Labour minority is the 6/4 favourite. When you listen to the political commentators the one thing you clearly get the feeling is that this could change and change again in the next 13 days. I always think that people in times of uncertainty will stick to what they already have, as happened when John Major won, Neil Kinnock was miles ahead in the polls. A Conservative / Lib Dem coalition, ie what we have now at 6/1 with Ladbrokes is not a bad bet. If the Conservatives get the most seats they will get first dibs on forming a government and if the Lib Dems don’t have a meltdown we could be in an ‘as you were’ scenario.

David-Cameron-and-Nick-Clegg

326 seats are needed for a majority. Presently the Conservatives have 306 and the Lib Dems 57. So what is the likelihood of the existing partners forming another coalition?

Current forecasts show that they are some way short, around 20 seats short. Take a look at the UK election forecast. This is updated daily. I think the phenomena we saw that gave John Major the win in 1992 may well happen again and I have had a small bet on this at 11/2. Only small though!

MAX BET CONSERVATIVES 276-300 SEATS 11/8
Ladbrokes are 11/8 that the Tories will get within this band of seats. The forecast is for 283 seats and the momentum is with them not against, so for me this is the best bet of the campaign. Boris Johnson will be mobilized and whatever your personal opinion of him and the Conservatives, Boris is popular and will cement the Conservative seat gain in the 280 to 290 region. 11/8 is superb!  Get the best odds here.

MAX BET UKIP 2-3 SEATS 5/4
To me this is also a cracking bet. The likelihood is that the two sitting MP’s for UKIP, Carswell and Wreckless will retain their seats and one other, probably Nigel Farage will make 3. This is my personal opinion but I do not think they will win more than 3 seats. Bet365 are 5/4. Nigel Farage is now 1/2 to win in Thanet South.

TURNOUT 65-70% MAX BET 6/4
If you can get the 6/4 offered by Boylesports about the turnout being between 65 and 70% then get on as much as possible, this is almost a certainty!

Image1

It is forecast to be 67% in fact and these forecasts are almost always absolutely spot on, this is almost the best bet of the whole campaign! Almost….

GREEN PARTY – ONE SEAT CERTAINTY
The certainty of the campaign is that the Green Party will win one seat. Brighton, held by Caroline Lucas will go green again, but they will not win any other seats. Their leader has polled appallingly in the debates etc and that has blown any chance she had of winning the seat she is contesting. William Hill are 1/2 on only one seat. TAKE IT! The greens were polling for 12 seats just six months ago (see here). They have run one of the most disastrously poor campaigns in election history. I can not find a market on the tenure of Natalie Bennett, but she surely will not remain as leader after May 7th.

My statement is made on the basis of stats, not opinion. The Green’s have gone backwards in this election and their leader is now a figure of ridicule. Forget the policies for a moment, but it is embarrassing to hear this woman interviewed, she is very poor as a politician. Even if you are a Green Party supporter, you would be in despair!

Caroline Lucas is certain to win in Brighton but that is it! 1/2 is short but it is better than you would get in a bank! 2/7 Caroline Lucas is a MAX BET.

ROTHERHAM LABOUR WIN 2/7
I grew up in Rotherham and it is so sad to see what has happened there. It used to be a case that Labour was a certainty and a donkey in red ribbons would win. However the challenge from UKIP means that you can actually get a bet on. Labour have a popular MP in Sarah Champion, and 2/7 is free money, she will win comfortably. I have managed to get £200 on this.

Whatever Happens it is the most uncertain election in modern times. There is still 13 days to go, we will keep our eye on the polls and the news and will update this next week!

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