Next Labour Leader- Lay The Challengers

The Conservative leadership is now settled, without an actual contest, and now the circus shifts to Labour. Carl Harris says lay the challengers Corbyn wins again.

political betting from Carl Harris X22 bet

Jeremy Corbyn has such strong support amongst Labour

So the circus shifts to the Labour party. Some might say enter the clowns! It has to be said the goings on in the Labour Party have been noting short of madness. Let’s recap the story so far….

Following a leadership race 10 months ago, or so, Jeremy Corbyn, a no hoper and 200-1 outsider won with the dominance of Frankel in the 2000 guineas. Since then the Labour membership has surged and the rise of the left has grown in momentum.

Following the EU referendum the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) staged a coup. This followed the sacking of Hillary Benn by Mr Corbyn. 80+ shadow cabinet members resigned. Labour were in open mutiny. Corbyn insisted he would not stand down saying he had a mandate from the membership of the party. Corbyn also crucially has the full support of the trade unions and key figures such as Len McLuskey.

Earlier this week Angela Eagle got the required 51 names to trigger a leadership contest and launched her leadership bid. Ironically it was completely overshadowed by Andrea Leadsom pulling out of the Conservative contest which resulted in Theresa May becoming PM.

The Labour Party were then split. The key issue was would Corbyn as Labour leader be automatically be added to the ballot. There are rules but it seems both parties interpreted them in different ways.

Sky News reported..
lawyersnew

I commented on my Twitter account that both sides paid for legal opinion and both sides got exactly the advice they were looking for. Funny that! I think that reflects more on lawyers than anything else. However Corbyn in on the ballot. There are some key rule changes though.

Rules and Timetable
The Labour National Executive (NEC) imposed a freeze date of 12 Jan 2016 for members to vote. Effectively only members of 6 months plus duration can vote. Also the cost of being a voting member is now £25, so the £3 members who joined for Corbyn will have to pay £25 to vote. Here is the official rules from the Labour NEC…

freeze date

This means that those who came in for £3 just 12 months ago will now have to pay £25 to vote. I commented on twitter that it is almost like Dell Boy was on the committee and has spotted an earner. Indeed those who paid £3 may have a case to feel aggrieved given that this messaged accompanied their £3 payment made on the Labour website when they joined;

3quid

So we may yet see a legal challenge, clearly there is a case given the laws about advertising. However as things stand it will cost the £3 members who are effectively Corbyn members £25 to vote. I have no doubt they will pay and Labour will make a big amount of money. Some (like me) might say that’s Socialism for you! So what now?

Nominations will close 15th August and on 21st September the result announced at the Labour Conference in Liverpool. What happens after that is anyone’s guess but we are talking betting here in the Next Labour Leader market.

Corby Will Win Again
You can not get odds on Corby winning. The market is for the NEXT Labour Leader. Here are the best odds from Oddschecker. I think the approach to make money is to LAY the field, I think Corbyn is a good thing to win. Here is why I say that.

Firstly he has a huge membership behind him. The passion he has engendered will work in his favour. The members supporting Corbyn are much more likely to pay £25 to support him, much more so than those who would be against him. The £3 members will pay. I have no doubt he will win.

Despite the one member one vote system the process now boasts the trade unions are vital and Corbyn has their unanimous support. They usually get their way.

This morning Owen Smith (who? look him up) has announced he will also run, along with Angela Eagle. The fact that there is now a split anti-Corbyn vote almost, in my view guarantees that Corbyn will win again. They didn’t have much of a chance with Eagle v Corbyn but Owen Smith clearly putting his own ambitions ahead of those of the PLP has clipped the Eagle’s wings and split the Anti-Corbyn Vote. There is no way either of them can win against the momentum (literally the Momentum movement) of Corbyn.

So the way to play this is to LAY LAY LAY, anyone against Corbyn lay them, the market is settled based on the announcement of the Labour Leader at the party conference in September.

Corbyn will not quit, he has shown so much resolve, we are onto a winner with Jeremy!

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