Next Labour Leader- Lay The Challengers

The Conservative leadership is now settled, without an actual contest, and now the circus shifts to Labour. Carl Harris says lay the challengers Corbyn wins again.

political betting from Carl Harris X22 bet

Jeremy Corbyn has such strong support amongst Labour

So the circus shifts to the Labour party. Some might say enter the clowns! It has to be said the goings on in the Labour Party have been noting short of madness. Let’s recap the story so far….

Following a leadership race 10 months ago, or so, Jeremy Corbyn, a no hoper and 200-1 outsider won with the dominance of Frankel in the 2000 guineas. Since then the Labour membership has surged and the rise of the left has grown in momentum.

Following the EU referendum the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) staged a coup. This followed the sacking of Hillary Benn by Mr Corbyn. 80+ shadow cabinet members resigned. Labour were in open mutiny. Corbyn insisted he would not stand down saying he had a mandate from the membership of the party. Corbyn also crucially has the full support of the trade unions and key figures such as Len McLuskey.

Earlier this week Angela Eagle got the required 51 names to trigger a leadership contest and launched her leadership bid. Ironically it was completely overshadowed by Andrea Leadsom pulling out of the Conservative contest which resulted in Theresa May becoming PM.

The Labour Party were then split. The key issue was would Corbyn as Labour leader be automatically be added to the ballot. There are rules but it seems both parties interpreted them in different ways.

Sky News reported..

I commented on my Twitter account that both sides paid for legal opinion and both sides got exactly the advice they were looking for. Funny that! I think that reflects more on lawyers than anything else. However Corbyn in on the ballot. There are some key rule changes though.

Rules and Timetable
The Labour National Executive (NEC) imposed a freeze date of 12 Jan 2016 for members to vote. Effectively only members of 6 months plus duration can vote. Also the cost of being a voting member is now £25, so the £3 members who joined for Corbyn will have to pay £25 to vote. Here is the official rules from the Labour NEC…

freeze date

This means that those who came in for £3 just 12 months ago will now have to pay £25 to vote. I commented on twitter that it is almost like Dell Boy was on the committee and has spotted an earner. Indeed those who paid £3 may have a case to feel aggrieved given that this messaged accompanied their £3 payment made on the Labour website when they joined;


So we may yet see a legal challenge, clearly there is a case given the laws about advertising. However as things stand it will cost the £3 members who are effectively Corbyn members £25 to vote. I have no doubt they will pay and Labour will make a big amount of money. Some (like me) might say that’s Socialism for you! So what now?

Nominations will close 15th August and on 21st September the result announced at the Labour Conference in Liverpool. What happens after that is anyone’s guess but we are talking betting here in the Next Labour Leader market.

Corby Will Win Again
You can not get odds on Corby winning. The market is for the NEXT Labour Leader. Here are the best odds from Oddschecker. I think the approach to make money is to LAY the field, I think Corbyn is a good thing to win. Here is why I say that.

Firstly he has a huge membership behind him. The passion he has engendered will work in his favour. The members supporting Corbyn are much more likely to pay £25 to support him, much more so than those who would be against him. The £3 members will pay. I have no doubt he will win.

Despite the one member one vote system the process now boasts the trade unions are vital and Corbyn has their unanimous support. They usually get their way.

This morning Owen Smith (who? look him up) has announced he will also run, along with Angela Eagle. The fact that there is now a split anti-Corbyn vote almost, in my view guarantees that Corbyn will win again. They didn’t have much of a chance with Eagle v Corbyn but Owen Smith clearly putting his own ambitions ahead of those of the PLP has clipped the Eagle’s wings and split the Anti-Corbyn Vote. There is no way either of them can win against the momentum (literally the Momentum movement) of Corbyn.

So the way to play this is to LAY LAY LAY, anyone against Corbyn lay them, the market is settled based on the announcement of the Labour Leader at the party conference in September.

Corbyn will not quit, he has shown so much resolve, we are onto a winner with Jeremy!

Andrea Leadsom- Why the Market is WRONG!

Carl Harris thinks Andrea Leadsom is a great bet to be the next Tory Leader at 10/3…

andrea leadsom

Will Andrea Leadsom be the next UK Prime Minister?

I am going to declare that I truly hope Andrea Leadsom wins the vote of the membership of the Conservative party and becomes leader and Prime Minister. However, this is a betting blog and when it comes to betting, there is no room for sentiment. I bet, as should everyone, based on logic and not emotion. I think that she will win and the betting market is badly wrong. This is my objective look why I am recommending Andrea Leadsom as a MAX BET for the next Conservative leader and UK Prime Minister. 

Lets look at the current market odds, oddschecker show the best prices, with Theresa May as short as 1/5 and Andrea Leadsom BEST PRICE 10/3, generally available. BEST ODDS HERE

The market would suggest that Theresa May is home and hosed. Remember BREXIT? The bookies got it BADLY WRONG, and the market had a similar look to it. The opinion polls never showed that the UK would vote leave but they did. That was a whole of the UK vote, this is far more focused and in my view easier to predict.

The process now is that the membership of the Conservative party will pick a new leader, from Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom. Membership numbers are a closely guarded secret but it is somewhere between 125 and 150 thousand, best guess. It is the Conservative Party membership who will determine the next Prime Minister of the UK. You may argue that is wrong, but in terms of a bet on who it will be is irrelevant!

By the way; don’t worry about a Labour style surge in membership to affect the result, the rules for the Conservative Party are you have to have been a member for at least three months to vote in leadership elections.

Favourites simply DO NOT win Tory leadership elections. David Davis was the runaway fav last time, much like May here, but David Cameron won. There is a long list of beaten favourites. The odds in my view are skewed because the parliamentary party overwhelmingly backed Theresa May. However we know that Westminster is detached from the rest of the country and certainly in the Conservative membership, they will vote differently to the Conservative MP’s.

Whilst the MP’s and senior Conservatives are saying the term leaver and remainer are now defunct, we are all leavers now, nothing could be further from the truth. This will boil down to two things in my view. Firstly May was a remainer, but really didn’t get involved in the most important decision of our lifetime, many will think, and Leadsom was a prominent leave campaigner. Indeed the leave campaign made her, many had never heard of her before the referendum.

In My View Andrea Leadsom Is The Conservative’s Conservative! 

Two thirds of the Conservative Party membership voted to LEAVE the EU, this is an issue that has divided the party and the strength of feeling over this issue could be decisive. Leadsom as a leaver is in pole position. However the typical Conservative member is also conservative with a small C and they like what Mrs Leadsom stands for, May is very liberal, very politically correct. Andrea Leadsom may have got negative coverage in the media with her views on such issues as Fox Hunting, Gay Marriage and Political Correctness (positive discrimination) but let me tell you know she is preaching to the choir and she will hit the right note.

Many members will see her as the new Margaret Thatcher, whist this may cause huge debate in wider society, not in the Conservative Party. Mrs Thatcher is held in the highest regard, almost God like status. Mrs Thatcher would win a leadership contest today in the party with almost 100% of the vote, it wouldn’t actually be a contest because no one would stand against her.  The second factor that will be decisive for Andrea Leadsom is one BORIS JOHNSON!

Andrea Leadsom then, you may argue, is behind Theresa May at this stage, however she has the support of Boris Johnson and if he were standing, he would win with a landslide, there is no question of that. Boris’ political ambitions have not gone away and he has given Leadsom his support. That is significant and more so could be decisive.

If, which he is sure to do, he campaigns actively on her behalf, his golden touch of election victories will have an effect here. He will be rewarded with a top job and be in prime position then to take over from Andrea Leadsom at some stage. Boris Johnson could and in my view probably will win this, for Andrea Leadson. He is an election winner as he showed with the Brexit vote, he can do the same for Andrea Leadsom.

Andrea Leadsom is a very smart cookie. She will milk the Boris factor for all it is worth, this for me will win it. The market is completely wrong. We are talking about a small electorate, a specific type of person, one who has a long track record of defying the odds.

I have NO DOUBT, none at all that the market is wrong, this is far closer than the odds suggest, but I think Leadsom should be the favourite and we should PILE IN at 10-3. I have!

We will know the winner on the 9th September 2016.

Jack Lands 50/1 EW 3 Steps Money

SECOND! I am so proud of Jack in the twilight of his career to finish second in the Three Steps. Normally finishing second is heartbreaking BUT in Patchys Kerry we were up against a superstar and there is no shame in that, in fact quite the opposite! Watch the race here on YOUTUBE

Viking Jack landed some HUGE BETS for members as we advised him EACH WAY at 50/1 with Paddy Power. I had £50 ew with them and the same at 40/1 with Ladbrokes. It was a great result for the legion of Viking Jack fans and he has amassed many.

He collects £1000 in prize money for the second place. He has amassed some CV Jack and he is a truly special dog. He is not yet four but he will have one more campaign the 2016 William Hill Derby. That will be his last, although we may have a farewell race at Sheffield for him, which we will call The Viking Jack Retirement Stakes. We will toast his success. But there is the Derby and Jack is no back number, he showed some pace, he was semi finalist last year.

He never ever gives up Jack – I am so proud of him. I will be having him at home with me, I have told the family he is coming and thats that! He will also go to stud, but will travel to his stud duties which I guess makes me some kind of pimp! Hey ho!

What a journey, the best dog EVER, well he is for me!


Keep Sundays SH*T

On Sunday in Ireland there are two meetings which features some quality racing, including two group one races and four group races in total.

It is the longest Bank Holiday of the year, Friday to Monday inclusive. There is the chance of nice spring weather and the opportunity to attract a big crowd.

One of the things I find most strange about the UK is the fascination with Sundays. It is not a religious day, Church attendances are practically zero. Have a read at this, less than 765k people go to church.

We live in a multicultural society too but yes the UK is predominantly a Christian country. So what percentage is 765k of the UK population of 70 million. It is 1%. Shops, pubs and our way of life on Sundays is dictated by something only 1% of the population care about!



Sunday Racing in the UK is relatively new, it was always a blank day. But it still has the afterthought look of it. Whilst Ireland has quality racing on Easter Sunday the UK has Plumpton, Sedgefield and Wolverhampton. Nothing wrong with those venues, but they are small tracks and put on low grade racing. It is beyond me why this has to be the case, particularly on Easter Sunday.

If you get more people and families who have kids you are building your audience for the future! I thought today let’s go racing on Sunday, I took one look and we are off to the Donkey Sanctuary instead, how ironic is that.

The BHA seem to have signed up to the Keep Sundays Shit Campaign! Things will change but it is so frustrating to see!

As only 1% of you will go to church, consider this your Sunday Sermon!

Good luck
Reverend Carl

Stop Giving a F**K – its Life Changing

I saw this book and the cover made me curious so I bought it..
not give a fuck

It may sound so obvious, but if you stop giving a fuck about things and people that matter not one jot it is so refreshing.

One great example is Social Media, given the job I do I get some abuse and years ago it bothered me, but I had stopped giving a Fuck about it a long time ago. These people are not customers, never been customers, never will be customers and their trolling is actually more of a reflection of their life than mine. In 99% of cases trolling is motivated by envy, jealousy and frustration of the individuals own life, everything from having a small penis to being a complete failure. So why give a fuck, no one can upset you if you don’t allow them to.

” I Genuinely Don’t Give A Fuck….”

This is a great book, it shows you how to streamline your life, how to get rid of irrelevance, things, places, tasks and people that you don’t give a fuck about, get shot. Do not engage, do not participate, do not dedicate one second of time or thought to things / people that are completely irrelevant. You will have more time, more happiness and a much better life.

There is no point in engaging people who seek to harass you, they think you are an arsehole, they clearly are arseholes and that won’t change so why bother, just don’t give a fuck!

My favourite saying now is I don’t give a fuck. Lots of people say that, but when you genuinely learn to actually not give a fuck it is liberating. The best application of this is people. If you don’t give a fuck about people, what they say, what they do, if they are no positive benefit to you, the only result from them focusing unwanted time and attention of you is they are wasting their own time and emotion. What used to upset you will make you laugh! “I genuinely don’t give a fuck, so fuck off” believe me that is liberating!


Stop being polite, if someone is an idiot, disengage and do not give a fuck about anything connected to them. The book is superb. You can get it here on Amazon. CLICK HERE

Cheltenham Day One Review

Carl Harris take a look at the key events from Day one at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival.

best seat

I had the best seat in the House for Cheltenham!

I was up early and walked the dog, back in time for the Morning Line. Rich Ricci was the special guest and he dropped a bombshell, which amazingly the Betfair market already knew about, that Vautour would NOT run in the Gold Cup. There was some uproar about that, but it is his horse and he can do what the hell he likes, no matter what anyone says! I got the cards done for Wednesday, was interviewed on the Jon Gaunt show (listen here). I rathe rnailed my colours to the Annie Power mast and hoped to God the New One Wouldn’t win! I had a sandwich and got ready for racing!

I had the big four Mullins Acca but really fancied the three without MIN, as the race looks full of top quality horses! let’s see how I do. The roar went up and we were off for another year….


Min was all the rage to land this for connections who had won this the previous three years. Min made a few mistakes but there are no excuses. Altior was too good and looks a proper horse! If this one stays over hurdles he could give Faugheen a race, Nicky Henderson says he doesn’t know yet.

The time of this race was mighty quick, given the official gong to good to soft, this is awesome. Altior slaughtered them. Bookies are offering 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle 2017, it would be folly to get involved now. VERY IPRESSIVE, could be a superstar! Nicky Henderson winning trainer and another top class ride by Nico De Boinville.

Douvan was hammered by the punters. 2-7 he was at the post, this would make him the shortest price winner ever of the Arkle chase. The form told you everything you needed to know. This was Douvan’s race to lose! Reports from the paddock was that Douvan is an outstanding looking horse!

The biggest certainty of the week for many, and so it proved! Returned 1-4. Vaniteux was unseated at the last but nothing was anywhere in the class of Douvan, we learned little from this, other than Douvan is what Rich Ricci described as a monster. Ricci said he could be anything, he could be one of the best horses of the modern era. WILLIE MULLINS SAYS HE IS THE BEST HE HAS EVER HAD!

rich ricci

When you own a horse like Douvan you can get away with the suit Rich Ricci was wearing!

I must say that personally I think it is great to have Rich Ricci in racing, he loves it and is living the dream, he is certainly successful as an owner! He has shaken things up!

The Ultima Handicap Chase

Looked an impossible puzzle to solve! I put up Beg To Differ and had £50 on at 12/1, hoping his jumping held up! he took a false step and unseated on the flat! NO LUCK for us there!

Not a race for the faint hearted! Good win for Pipe and Scudamore. UN TEMP POUR TOUS who won very well in deed, from The Hollywell.  Champion Hurdle next…

The Champion Hurdle

ANNIE POWER went off FAV, I nailed my colours to the Annie Power mast and made this my bet of the day. It was also the Fineform MEGAMAX BET of the day. She is a mare remember, the last one to win was the great Flakey Dove. No after-timing from me I said Annie Power would win and I was absolutely adamant about it. I risked egg on my face and plenty of ribbing!

WOW! That is all I can say and very well done to connections going for it, not only a brave decision to supplement her, a great training performance and a superb ride by Ruby Walsh. Make no bones about it we have just seen a superb Cheltenham Festival moment. She has gone from Champion to Legend!

Not only a Champion Hurdler but she broke the track record. Enough said!


Vroom Vroom Mag was a really short price, all the multibets, trebles and lucky 15 liabilities were rolling over to her. I am one of those, I posted my betting slip on twitter, £100 terble, I also had it online and have a trixie. I had a couple of grand resting on the outcome of this race!

JOB DONE! We have seen a superb day for Rich Ricci, Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins. We are witnessing greatness.

I have made plenty of money and it is time for me to pack in for the day! I will update the last two races later on!

It’s off to Sheffield to watch Viking Jack!



Wigan v Leeds Sky Sports 1- Rhinos 5/2 Value

Super League

The two finalists from last season’s Super League Grand Final play tonight, just five months after Leeds’ 22-20 victory at Old Trafford, to complete a historical treble for the Headingley club.

The betting tells you it is a different story today, in terms of the form of the two clubs. Wigan are 2/5 and Leeds are 5/2. Backing Leeds Rhinos at 5/2 is a novel experience to Superleague punters!

Leeds have had a shocking start losing their opening three fixtures before narrowly beating bottom of the league Huddersfield last weekend. Woeful. Injury has played a part, but Leeds are a class team and I would like to declare a bias – I am a Rhinos Fan. You will never hear me use the term Leeds fan, because the morons go to football and the good people Rugby League!

Form is temporary and class is permanent. I reckon the Rhinos might come back to form tonight! This is not a scientific prediction or a max bet, its just my personal view and I will have £20 on them, watch a great sport tonight and hope The Rhinos Win.

Best Odds Here

Thursday Horseracing Tips and Blog


Well I have to say well done to Value Man Matt who was on big on Chookie Royale and landed the spoils! I was all over this too, 11/8 early doors was value in the context of the SP which was returned odds on! I was concerned that Tom Eaves, who has ridden for me in the past, and Won, went too early but he got the job done. That is what matters, they pay the same whether it is a nose or a distance.

Chookie Royale 2

Frustrating night to say the least. We had a dog winner, but it wasn’t a great night and one of our picks, Droopys Sarafina broke down, which was awful. This week we are 5 Max Bet winners from 8 Bets, so we are ahead on the dogs.

Footy Dog was dreadfully unfortunate. Arsenal were 3-2 up and Liverpool got a last minute equalizer. That is why the draw no bet is a great option. I took that option and got out level. Chelsea are now officially rubbish, according to Footy Dog. More tips will be posted on the blog. What a ridiculous sport Football. The ridiculous things football fans come out with. Talk about bias and unbalanced thinking. Someone actually said to me that Leeds are the best team ever and Manchester United are crap. Clearly neither statement is true, but he was prepared to defend this view, probably to the death. I don’t have the time of the motivation to be involved in such a ridiculous pass time. Football can turn normal people in to idiots. I’m quite happy being an idiot without football.


The weather isn’t getting any better but the biggest turn up of the day is the going report at Catterick…

Soft! I would sound the HANG ON Klaxon with this one! Catterick has got form for shall we politely say not getting the going quite as accurate as it ought to be! When we had horses we would turn up at Catterick on days like today, thinking soft going will be fine, after two races going change to heavy! It happens all the time, Haydock is traditionally the worst for this, but Catterick has form! I am, shall we say, skeptical, to the point I would put money on a going change at some stage today. Probably after all the horses have arrived and declared, certainly after the first couple of races. That is my NAP of the day!

If it wasn’t tipping down I would be tempted to go to Catterick and see for myself, but I could jump in the shower fully clothed and then drink tea in my wet clothes all afternoon watching Racing UK, for the same effect!

AGAIN, Keep your bets to a minimum, if indeed you are betting at all today. 


I have been told to look out for a horse which actually runs here today, given what I have said above it is a shame, because I won’t be betting it, despite waiting for it to run!

14.20 Catterick Satellite 

This cost £105k, formerly with William Haggas. A decent flat horse I was told that it is going to be a star over hurdles. I am not sure I would be running it here today in these conditions. Oh hang on it’s soft, yeah right! Joking aside it is supposed to be a decent type. I am also concerned about the yard’s form. They have had a shocking couple of years. They used to be a potent force, clearly they can do the job. This could be one for the future rather than today.


14.50 Catterick PETE THE FETE (MAX EW BET 8/1)

The bet today is PETE THE FETE. You may recall a couple of years ago it ran up a sequence of wins and the handicapper put this one out of business for a while. However he is back to a workable mark. The ten pond yard claimer takes off a lump of weight. Down to a mark of 132 with 10 off that this means that the old boy is well treated and can go in here. The ground will be no problem and he is one for the slog in a bog! Great EW bet at 8/1.


15.05 Southwell BRING ON A SPINNER 6/4 Stan James

Looks decent, won well on AW debut here and a mark of 65 in lenient. Over CD and should be a point and shoot job! I think this is another like yesterday that will be well punted and returned a shorter price.

We should make a few quid with Matt today!


Tuesday Horseracing and Daily Blog

It was an eventful day on Monday! I spent a good deal of the day dealing with disputes, one over a dog I bought in to that was sold as a diamond but was actually a lump of coal and secondly with a keyboard warrior on Twitter who decided it was OK to post libelous accusations about me, despite NOT having met me, spoken to me, done any business with me, in fact having absolutely no basis whatsoever to substantiate his claims.

The party in question is Mark Whittaker of who runs greyhound syndicates. I have several greyhounds, including a couple of decent ones, perhaps it was driven by envy, I have no idea at all. However the dispute was resolved without having to go before the court…


General Thoughts About The Internet…

Sadly people think that they can publish what they like on Social Media, but FREE SPEECH is one thing, but the laws of libel and defamation exist for a reason. I find it interesting that the people pedaling the free speech mantra are always the ones to shout the defamation laws the loudest when they are on the receiving end of damaging slurs. The internet has done plenty of good, but it has done much harm to society! Some people are too stupid to have access to it in my view! Anyway one problem is sorted the other is about to be! Not a great start to 2016 so far.

Big Winning Monday….

That said it was a good day on Monday with the horses and dogs both making a few quid. A 6/1 winner for Monday’s Horsracing Tips when BY RIGHTS Won and two dogs at Nottingham, a Charlie Lister Double both won, at the early value prices. You can see both races here.

Horseracing Tips are Free at X22 bet

Tuesday Free Horseracing Tips

Tuesday Horseracing Tips…

Members of X22 Services will note we are ticking over at the moment and advising that if you do bet do so to minimal stakes. The ground and weather is having an effect. Ayr was off yesterday and Fakenham is off today. Many yards have been affected by flooding and rain so some horses will need the run. We are getting back to normal, but we are about WINNING not betting for the sake of it!

Tuesday sees Lingfield (AW) and Ludlow (Jumps) where the going is, you guessed it, HEAVY!

There are two short ones that ordinarily I wouldn’t oppose, 1.30 THE GRIPPER and 3.00 GARDE DE LA VICTOIRE. Both short, the double is above evens, it should cop, but these are strange times so beware! My bet at Ludlow today hopefully will not be well named!


Venetia Williams always does well in desperate going. Take the Mick goes well on this, is on a decent mark and has everything in favour today. Celtic Intrigue is a progressive horse but surely this rise in the weight on this going will stop it! I like Mick and if you don’t fancy the double this is a good bet!


A tough card there. In truth the best bet there is probably no bet BUT if you want a sporting flutter then two horses stand out on the card…

1.40 Sumner Chorus

2.40 Special Occasion

Both are 2/1 or so, the form is there and chances obvious. As I said they come with a big warning, but if I had to get there today they would be the two I would choose!

Sheffield greyhounds tonight! Bets will follow this afternoon!

Have a great day


Happy New Year- The Blog is Back

Two bets for you from X22 on Tuesday, including a CK Max Bet….
Happy New Year!
new year is a time for resolutions and ours is to update the blog regularly! Racing has taken a battering at the hands of the weather, indeed today there is no jumps racing, leaving only the all-weather.

However it is a new year and we have so much to look forward to. It is only a few weeks until Cheltenham, then we start again on the flat! I for one can’t wait until we are back on the flat and more importantly on better going!

Today X22 has TWO Max bets for members from Conrad King. Conrad is a pro punter and tipster who lives in St John’s Wood in London, but has contacts reaching far and wide!



13.10 Southwell Max Bet PATRIOTIC

Firstly an agent bet is where CK’s agents back this for him. This is obviously his strongest bet. This is what CK says about this bet…
“PATRIOTIC has SDS in the saddle, he is five pounds below his LAST winning mark. Last win was here in December 2014 from a mark of 80, todays bet looks absolutely bang on. I have asked my agents to take EVENS, which they have, you can still get it in places, but there is big money on this today. Get on early”.

13.40 Southwell Max Bet WESTWARD HOE

If you look at the form, at Southwell surface form is important WESTWARD HOE fits the bill. TAKE 9/4, this horse could win this in style and is a very strong bet. I like BOTH these bets today so have a NICE double.


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