One Week To Voting Day #GE2015

On May 7th the UK goes to the poll for the General Election 2015. That means in 7 days from today we can all go out and vote.

It is a “cert” that no one will win. To me it is like a greyhound race….The Labour Party wear the red jacket in TRAP 1 and the Conservative Party the blue of TRAP 2. So we know that the red or blue will get furthest, but unless the polls are dramatically wrong neither will finish the race!

In the mythical 2015 election greyhound race both will get to about the third bend. 326 seats is what is needed for a majority and to govern the UK. Estimates are that the Conservatives will get the around the 280 mark and Labour 265. This is what Betfair Predicts puts the state of play at with a week to go…

Political Betting from X22

Political Betting from X22

So looking at some basic maths, the magic number is 326. So to be PM Cameron needs 47 more on these number. The Lib Dems will lose half their MP’s and the current coalition is still 19 short on these numbers. Even with UKIP and the DUP they can’t make it!

So the market has an odd look, Conservatives are long odds on for most seats but Milliband, The Labour Leader is odds on to be PM. But for all the talk of an SNP / Labour deal, which he has publicly ruled out categorically (yeah right) they still are only past the fourth bend, they do not get to the winning line!

It is a race no one is going to finish and if the polls are right we will have an election to decide nothing! If racing terms Trap 1 and Trap 2 will get to the third bend, then will try and talk the other four runners in to a stitch up! Whatever happens it looks a dead cert that the election will only make everything totally unclear! The result will be a complete mess. There is NO WAY at all any of the sides can govern with a majority.

Best guess…well I have a feeling that the undecided will have a HUGE SAY, as happened with John Major, in uncertain times they revert to the devil they know. I think that we may end up with a CON / Lib Dem minority.

I have no idea how Milliband having categorically said no deal with the SNP could then do one. But in politics nothing will surprise me! The ban on cigarette advertising in sport that Blair gave F1 an exclusion was staggering. Clearly nothing to do with the £1m Bernie Eccleston had previously donated to Labour ! I am not picking on Labour, they are all in the say one thing do another bracket! The Conservatives are even promising a law so they can’t break their promises not to raise taxes.

So as Iain Dale pointed out on Twitter,


Are they saying then, ‘this is a real promise the rest are not really’ ?

From now on we should ask is that a legally binding promise or not a real promise! The parties are so desperate that every day it is a give away as to what they will do, I can’t believe people still believe what politicians say to be honest!

So we are all waiting for a race we are fairly sure no one will win. If things turn out as predicted we will end up with one big fat mess!

Oh and don’t forget that whatever happens we are stuck with it for the next five years thanks to the fixed term parliament act brought in as part of the 2010 coalition agreement!  If you think this election has gone on too long, wit until next week, you aint seen nothing yet!

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