Andrea Leadsom- Why the Market is WRONG!

Carl Harris thinks Andrea Leadsom is a great bet to be the next Tory Leader at 10/3…

andrea leadsom

Will Andrea Leadsom be the next UK Prime Minister?

I am going to declare that I truly hope Andrea Leadsom wins the vote of the membership of the Conservative party and becomes leader and Prime Minister. However, this is a betting blog and when it comes to betting, there is no room for sentiment. I bet, as should everyone, based on logic and not emotion. I think that she will win and the betting market is badly wrong. This is my objective look why I am recommending Andrea Leadsom as a MAX BET for the next Conservative leader and UK Prime Minister. 

Lets look at the current market odds, oddschecker show the best prices, with Theresa May as short as 1/5 and Andrea Leadsom BEST PRICE 10/3, generally available. BEST ODDS HERE

REMEMBER BREXIT?
The market would suggest that Theresa May is home and hosed. Remember BREXIT? The bookies got it BADLY WRONG, and the market had a similar look to it. The opinion polls never showed that the UK would vote leave but they did. That was a whole of the UK vote, this is far more focused and in my view easier to predict.

ONLY 150K VOTERS, MAX!
The process now is that the membership of the Conservative party will pick a new leader, from Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom. Membership numbers are a closely guarded secret but it is somewhere between 125 and 150 thousand, best guess. It is the Conservative Party membership who will determine the next Prime Minister of the UK. You may argue that is wrong, but in terms of a bet on who it will be is irrelevant!

By the way; don’t worry about a Labour style surge in membership to affect the result, the rules for the Conservative Party are you have to have been a member for at least three months to vote in leadership elections.

FAVOURITES NEVER WIN THIS…
Favourites simply DO NOT win Tory leadership elections. David Davis was the runaway fav last time, much like May here, but David Cameron won. There is a long list of beaten favourites. The odds in my view are skewed because the parliamentary party overwhelmingly backed Theresa May. However we know that Westminster is detached from the rest of the country and certainly in the Conservative membership, they will vote differently to the Conservative MP’s.

BREXIT v REMAIN AGAIN…
Whilst the MP’s and senior Conservatives are saying the term leaver and remainer are now defunct, we are all leavers now, nothing could be further from the truth. This will boil down to two things in my view. Firstly May was a remainer, but really didn’t get involved in the most important decision of our lifetime, many will think, and Leadsom was a prominent leave campaigner. Indeed the leave campaign made her, many had never heard of her before the referendum.

In My View Andrea Leadsom Is The Conservative’s Conservative! 

Two thirds of the Conservative Party membership voted to LEAVE the EU, this is an issue that has divided the party and the strength of feeling over this issue could be decisive. Leadsom as a leaver is in pole position. However the typical Conservative member is also conservative with a small C and they like what Mrs Leadsom stands for, May is very liberal, very politically correct. Andrea Leadsom may have got negative coverage in the media with her views on such issues as Fox Hunting, Gay Marriage and Political Correctness (positive discrimination) but let me tell you know she is preaching to the choir and she will hit the right note.

Many members will see her as the new Margaret Thatcher, whist this may cause huge debate in wider society, not in the Conservative Party. Mrs Thatcher is held in the highest regard, almost God like status. Mrs Thatcher would win a leadership contest today in the party with almost 100% of the vote, it wouldn’t actually be a contest because no one would stand against her.  The second factor that will be decisive for Andrea Leadsom is one BORIS JOHNSON!

BRING ON THE BORIS!
Andrea Leadsom then, you may argue, is behind Theresa May at this stage, however she has the support of Boris Johnson and if he were standing, he would win with a landslide, there is no question of that. Boris’ political ambitions have not gone away and he has given Leadsom his support. That is significant and more so could be decisive.

If, which he is sure to do, he campaigns actively on her behalf, his golden touch of election victories will have an effect here. He will be rewarded with a top job and be in prime position then to take over from Andrea Leadsom at some stage. Boris Johnson could and in my view probably will win this, for Andrea Leadson. He is an election winner as he showed with the Brexit vote, he can do the same for Andrea Leadsom.

Andrea Leadsom is a very smart cookie. She will milk the Boris factor for all it is worth, this for me will win it. The market is completely wrong. We are talking about a small electorate, a specific type of person, one who has a long track record of defying the odds.

I have NO DOUBT, none at all that the market is wrong, this is far closer than the odds suggest, but I think Leadsom should be the favourite and we should PILE IN at 10-3. I have!

We will know the winner on the 9th September 2016.

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